Global Cycles: Can They Be Distinguished by Importance?

In the continuation of my basic research on the topic of societal cycles, there is a question I would like to elaborate on. Which of the global cycles are more important for the development of a nation or a society? Several people asked me about this, so here are my several ideas on this issue.

First of all, you certainly can’t say with absolute confidence that some type of cycles is crucial or some types of cycles are less important. They cover different aspects of human nature, human and societal development. They just cover different parts of our life. And in this respect, they can’t be distinguished in terms of which is more important and which is less.

On the other hand, you should always take into account the preferences that people or societies put before them. Some of these preferences may be more short-term goals. For other individuals or countries, or even civilizations there can be much longer-term goals and objectives.

Primary importance

With all this in mind in terms of the importance of the cycles, I would say that the most important cycles are the demographic ones. They put the base for all the other types of cycles because ultimately it is actually the sum of individuals that creates development. Broadly speaking, the more people there are, the more development these individuals can potentially achieve, all other things being equal. These demographic cycles can last for millennia. Sometimes they can shorten to centuries or even decades. In any case, in my opinion, they are the most crucial type of cycles that influence a country’s or a civilization’s development.

I would also say that, after demographic cycles, the most important are the economic cycles. This is also a somewhat contentious idea because economic cycles incorporate many other aspects of human development. In particular, they include technological advancement that influences the economy, finance, trade many other spheres of life.

Secondary importance

I would also argue that the second most important type of cycles is technological cycles and technological revolutions. When they happen they dramatically change the way people produce, consume or distribute goods and services. Furthermore, tech cycles dramatically influence the efficiency of production. All in all, many economists argue that technological development is the backbone of economic development. Without it, it’s only extensive growth that just can’t be sustainable in the long run.

Other cycles

That the rest of the cycles may seem less important because they can be said to influence some short-term development or a limited scale factor. They can be extremely influential and can be extremely important in changing people’s lives in the short term. Nevertheless, if you look at the global strategic picture, they are less prominent in terms of the development of global civilization.

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All in all, I would repeat my point that it is extremely hard to distinguish which type of cycles of development is more important. Especially taking into account that all of them intertwine between themselves. Nevertheless, some classification by the level of their influence on the overall humankind development can be made.